Naval Almanack · procedural note

Decision Heuristics

Concrete tools Naval uses to decide. Source-stated, not invented.

1. "If you can't decide, the answer is no"

For long-locked-in decisions (marry / take this job / buy this house / move cities / start company with X):

Modern society has near-infinite options; you're not biologically built to feel that.
When you choose, you're locked in for years.
Therefore say yes only when you're very certain. Pros/cons spreadsheets → forget it. If you can't decide, the answer is no.

2. Run uphill (short-term pain heuristic)

"If you're evenly split on a difficult decision, take the path more painful in the short term."

Brain over-weights short-term happiness and dodges short-term pain.
Two evenly-matched paths → one of them has long-term pain hidden farther out, one has long-term gain after short-term pain.
Lean into the short-term pain. (Working out, reading a confusing book — short-term sore for long-term smarter/stronger.)

3. Inversion (Munger-style)

"I don't believe I have the ability to say what is going to work. Rather, I try to eliminate what's not going to work. Being successful is just about not making mistakes."

It's not about correct judgment; it's about avoiding incorrect judgment.

4. Avoid ruin

Avoid jail (don't do anything illegal).
Avoid catastrophic physical harm to your body.
Avoid total loss of capital — don't gamble everything on one go.
Instead: rationally optimistic bets with big upsides.

5. Three biggest decisions

Spend 1–2 years on each, not minutes:

Where to live (city = trajectory).
Who to be with (partner = decade+).
What to do (career = years).

6. Classical virtues as decision heuristics

"The classical virtues are all decision-making heuristics to make one optimize for the long term rather than for the short term."

7. Specific knowledge-density principle

"In an age of leverage, one correct decision can win everything."

Decision-making is everything. Someone right 80% vs 70% is valued hundreds of times more.

Judgment — what these heuristics are sharpening.
Clear Thinking Protocol — the upstream practices that enable these.
Compound Interest (Life) — why long-term framing dominates.

Sources: [Almanack pp103, 107, 111-112]