Purpose
Stop treasonous choices in real time. Used daily — informal, no paper, takes seconds.
The three questions
For any decision of consequence, ask in order:
- What is the worst-case consequence of this choice?
- What is the probability of that outcome?
- Is this risk acceptable to me?
If the answer to #3 is no, abandon the choice. Find another.
Worked example (from source)
Choice: go home with someone met at a bar two hours ago for sex.
- Worst-case outcomes: STD; pregnancy; false accusation.
- Probabilities (author's gut estimates): STD 10%; pregnancy 1%; false accusation 0.5%.
- Acceptable risk? No — the 10% is too high, and the consequences are life-altering.
Decision: no.
Worked example #2 — street racing
A speed-racing challenge from a stranger.
- Worst case: kill self / kill someone.
- Probability: ~3% given conditions.
- Acceptable? No — kill-probability cannot be casually accepted.
Decision: release the accelerator.
When to use
- Any choice you sense is risky-but-tempting.
- Quick yes/no decisions made in emotional states (lust, anger, drunkenness, pride, fear of missing out).
- Daily small decisions that compound (eat the donut, skip the workout, take the call from the ex).
When not to use
- For complex multi-factor decisions where worst case is mild but trade-offs are real — use WADM instead.
Why it works
It forces conscious risk valuation before reflex. The probability question is a sanity check — emotional reasoning routinely treats low-probability disasters as "won't happen to me." Naming the probability makes the math visible.